The Democratic Election Illusion.

You can say many things about Egyptian politics but calling it unpredictable isn’t one of them. Since the first time we had so called democratic and free elections, we always knew who would win, and the 2014 presidential election is no different.

Many Egyptians can’t help feeling like one candidate is the winner this year and that feeling is not new at all. In the Egyptian presidential election of 2012, after our amazing revolution in 2011, we were rushed into an election that forced us to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood puppet “Mohamed Morsi”.

Morsi’s campaign was like a flood that swept Egypt; banners covering buildings, posters everywhere, and he was on TV more than any of his opponents. Morsi’s image was blasted all over the place, and Egyptians were sold on the change he would bring to Egypt. Little did we know it was more of the same.

This time around we have two candidates, but you hardly can see anyone else next to the former army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Like Morsi, his images are on the buildings, his banners are in the streets, and he is all over the TV.  We’re seeing Sisi giving interviews all over, but Sisi’s rival, leftist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, is hardly visible.

With headlines like “Sisi Set for a Landslide Win After Egypt Presidential Election Ends,“  and another headline reading, “ A Landslide Victory for Ex-Army Chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi is widely expected” leading into the election, it is obvious who everyone believes is going to win.

Many Egyptians are not participating in this election because they feel it is not a fair nor democratic election. But people are not allowed to voice their disagreement with the way this election has been run. Furthermore they are not allowed to protest peacefully in the street. The new anti-demonstration law that was passed this year by the acting interim president left many people in jail awaiting trials, and scared the rest of the Egyptians from protesting.

The overwhelming sentiment is: if you don’t vote for Sisi you are a traitor and you are against the army. With an atmosphere like that, people can’t help but to reman in silence. Activists are pressured to keep their opinions to themselves.

Away from all the campaign and election fuss, many poor people in Egypt don’t care one way or another. After a few years of chaos and clashes, the poor people are still suffering and their situation hasn’t improved, but rather declined. Over a quarter of Egyptians live under the poverty line.

Whoever wins the election, to many people it won’t change much. Knowing who will win an election before it happens takes all its legitimacy away, and makes it far from a democratic process. For now we are jus worried that Sisi will set Egypt back to an old repressive regime that Egyptians are very familiar with when he wins, which, of course, he will.

The Egyptian Presidential Election 2014

The Egyptian presidential election this time is between former army chief Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi and longtime Nasserist politician Hamdeen Sabahi, who finished third in Egypt's 2012 presidential poll.

Egyptians living overseas started lining up to vote in the presidential election, but many are boycotting the presidential election altogether. I’m one of these people.

The decision to boycott the presidential election very much depends on whom you ask. People from the  Muslim Brotherhood who support Morsi believe that his ousting was a coup, and they still believe that Morsi is the president of Egypt.

On the other hand most activists don't see that the election is going to change much in Egyptian politics. It is just an election like other elections we have had since the removal of Mubarak in 2011. This election is designed to give control to another ex-military man who believes that freedom of speech is not necessary right now, and it might hurt the country.

However I boycott the election because I don’t see any sign of change. I also think that this election is forcing every Egyptian to choose between the bad and the worst; by the worst I mean former army chief Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi.

I know that sometimes you don’t get what you want, but we have been getting the bad end of the bargain all the time. Therefore we have to demand change and we have to get our voices heard.

People didn’t sacrificed their lives during the uprising so former army chief Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi could become the president of Egypt. They lost their life seeking change and democracy. However we are too far away from that goal.

Former PM Hisham Kandil Latest Muslim Brotherhood Member Captured

Authorities in Egypt have arrested the ousted President Morsi’s Prime Minister, Hisham Kandil. Kandil was caught in the southeast mountain area with smugglers while he  was trying to cross the border to Sudan. His arrest came as no surprise since the Egyptian authorities have been hunting down all prominent members of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi’s cabinet.

I have been asked time and time again about what is going on in Egypt since I spent six month there this year. Unfortunately my explanation sounds more like fiction, but it seems very obvious to me.

The Muslim brotherhood, who lived in the shadows for years, came out of hiding after the initial revolution that removed Mubarak in 2011. It was a great opportunity for them to replace  Mubarak and capitalize on the revolution. The reason why the Egyptian Military and secret services have been very successful in capturing Brotherhood members is because the Brotherhood felt very comfortable after Mubarak’s fall.

After all, the Brotherhood went through a parliamentary election and won 60% of the seats in 2011, and followed that by nominating an unknown person, Morsi, for the presidency. Getting Morsi a majority of the popular vote must have been a very comforting ego boost to the Brotherhood.

With all the winning in 2011 and 2012, the Brotherhood must have felt as if they were free at last, after 60 years of hiding. The Muslim Brotherhood had attracted more people by proving themselves legitimate after winning a majority and installing Morsi as the president.

In 2013 the Muslim Brotherhood were unstoppable. They became the mainstream, and gained street credibility. However they underestimated the Military, who were watching and quietly doing what they do best; creating a list of all the Muslim Brotherhood members. So when the military answered the people’s call for removing Morsi on July third, they were also ready to dismantle the Brotherhood soon after.

So If you want to know what is going on in Egypt, keep an eye on the military, because they are the ones with the guns, and they have the most to gain or lose if the economy goes bust.

When you hear that the authorities arrested another Brotherhood member, it shouldn’t be a surprise. It is a round-up that the military is doing to secure the country, but mostly to secure their interests and stay relevant.

Morsi Reads from Mubarak's Script

Two years after the initial revolution, Morsi warns of risks from unrest, just like Mubarak did in January 2011. Trying to gain the people's support, Morsi's three-hour speech did nothing but anger people.

During the start of the revolution, before he left office, Mubarak gave a speech that tried to play on people's feeling and get them on his side. It only took him ten minutes to do that, and he divided the the Egyptian people, getting a large number of Egyptians wanting him to stay in office.

It took Morsi three hours to do the same thing; now many people on the streets of Cairo are wishing Mubarak would come back.

From standing in the middle of Tahrir square with thousands of protesters on June 26, during Morsi's speech, I am feeling the frustration and anger of the Egyptian people. After a long speech, Morsi only proved that he is is removed from the reality on the street, and completely unaware of how people suffer or feel. Unfortunately, Morsi speech didn’t not offer any concessions or suggestions of improvements. All his speech did was try to gain police and army supports in upcoming days, as the country braces for the June 30 Rebel protests.

Morsi threatened the opposition and media many times during his long speech. Morsi also accused several judges – by name – of corruption. He asked pointed questions about how Mubarak-era figures had been acquitted by Egypt's court system. Morsi spoke about pseudo-achievements that did not happen during his term. He was delusional to the point of  accusing the people themselves of being responsible for all of Egypt's issues and crises, and blaming them for all the recent political problems.

Morsi failed to take any responsibility for the country's deep political polarization and failed economy. Instead he  blamed all former presidents for all economic and political issues that Egypt faces today.

It's awkward and telling that Morsi of used many of  the same words and phrases that the ousted president ,Hosni Mubarak, often used. Morsi appeared to be speaking about another Egypt, one that does not exist in the real word.

The Egyptian military has moved forces near Egypt's major cities, openly threatening to intervene if Morsi's supporters and opponents cannot find a compromise and avoid bloodshed. The stage is set, as the military seems to be siding with the people against the Islamists who support the Morsi regime.

I do feel like the upcoming days won’t pass by without significant clashes between the Muslim Brotherhood and the rest of the Egyptian people.